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把 306 组实验比较合起来算(荟萃分析):换个角度解释发生的事(认知重评)对情绪的效果大小 d = 0.36。站到对方立场看 d = 0.45。转移注意 d = 0.27。硬压住感受无效(d = -0.04)。另有三项实验显示:惩罚冒犯者的人,事后反而更久地反复想对方;不惩罚的人更快「翻篇」。人们事先高估了报复带来的痛快。
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21.觉得「所有人都看见我出丑了」的时候,把这个估计除以二
不花钱时间少要点毅力收益小证据 B换回时间与精力
成本
不花钱。只是在紧张的时候多问自己一句:他们真的看见了吗。
说人话
穿一件尴尬的 T 恤走进有人的房间,穿的人以为将近一半人认得出衣服上印的是谁,实际不到四分之一。穿自己觉得体面的 T 恤,估计的人数是实际的六倍。人聊完天,也普遍低估对方有多喜欢自己。所以觉得「所有人都记住我出丑了」时,砍一半仍然偏高。
收益
实验一:让参与者穿上印有 Barry Manilow 头像的 T 恤,走进有其他参与者的房间。穿的人平均估计 46% 的旁观者能正确指出衣服上的人是谁。旁观者实际正确率 23%,估计值恰为实际值的两倍。逐场把估计值减去实际值,平均高估 23 个百分点(95% CI 9–38,可信范围)。剔除只有两名和三名旁观者的那两场之后,为 27 个百分点(11–43)。实验二:改穿参与者自选的、自认为正面的 T 恤。平均估计 48%,旁观者实际正确率 8%,为六倍。另一系列研究有三种场景:陌生人配对交谈、大学新生室友、成人工作坊。结果是人们系统性低估交谈对象对自己的喜欢程度,也低估对方对这次交谈的享受程度。作者称之为「喜欢差」。不同长度的交谈中都存在,在新生室友之间持续数月。
备注
定 B 的理由:都是人数不多的实验室与校园研究,场景是穿衣服和跟陌生人聊天。搬到「被同事议论」「在会上说错话」上,没有直接证据。这些数字只说明高估的方向和大致倍数,没法当系数套。别人的看法也不是都不重要。真正在评价你的场合,比如面试、答辩、考核、体检报告,评价是实打实的,该准备就准备。要打折的只是日常里那种「所有人都在看我」的感觉,那部分要对付的是你自己的估计偏差。
来源
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把多项研究合起来算(荟萃分析):45 项研究、N = 11,747,人群为本科生、医学生、社区成人与精神科患者,用的是随机效应模型。下面是与自杀念头的加权平均相关。完美主义担忧 r = .28(95% CI .24–.32,可信范围;42 项研究、7,936 人)。完美主义担忧是一个合集,包括社会规定型完美主义、在意犯错、对行动的怀疑、现实与标准的落差等。其中社会规定型完美主义单独算,也是 r = .28(.25–.32,30 项研究、3,640 人)。完美主义追求 r = .10(.07–.13,31 项研究、4,588 人),它是自我导向的完美主义与个人标准的合集。父母批评 r = .20(.11–.29)。再看与自杀未遂的关系。完美主义担忧 r = .12(.07–.17,15 项研究、5,275 人)。社会规定型完美主义 r = .19(.08–.29,8 项研究、689 人)。跟踪一段时间的那部分:把一开始就有的自杀念头扣除后,社会规定型完美主义仍与后来随访时的自杀念头同向变化,幅度不大。自我导向与他人导向的完美主义都看不出关联。
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把 154 项研究合起来算(荟萃分析),共 184 组样本、10,189 人。让身体平静下来的办法,比如深呼吸、正念、冥想,能降低怒气和攻击性。效果大小 g = -0.63,95% CI -0.82 到 -0.43(可信范围)。这个结果在不同性别、种族、年龄和文化的人里都稳定。让身体更兴奋的办法,比如打沙袋、慢跑、骑车,整体无效。它的效果大小 g = -0.02,95% CI -0.13 到 0.09。作者的结论是:发泄怒气、去跑一圈,都不是管用的消气办法。
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